Mostly Pass
Most games aren't bets.
Public research record
BET: none (the model has not earned BETs) · LEAN paper signals published: 4, none graded yet
PAPERmoney type
0BET signals
4LEAN paper signals
0-0-0LEAN results
n/aLEAN mean CLV (n=0)
n/aLEAN CLV positive
73%of games graded PASS
How this record works
- Every signal is PAPER. No real money is wagered or claimed. If that ever changes, each row will say so in the
moneycolumn. - BET, LEAN, PASS. A BET requires a model that has beaten closing lines out of sample; ours has not, so there are no BETs. A LEAN is a paper signal: the model disagrees with the market by more than a set threshold. It is tracked at zero stake for research, so it never adds units or ROI. A PASS is everything else.
- Timestamped and append-only. Each signal is written at publication with a UTC timestamp and the page it was published on. Rows are never edited or deleted. Corrections are new rows. The full history lives in a public git repository, so any change would be visible.
- Graded automatically. Final scores come from nflverse, with The Odds API as fallback. If the two sources disagree, the signal is not graded and stays listed as pending.
- Closing line. The close is our own last Pinnacle capture before kickoff, taken by a job that checks every 10 minutes. Each row shows how many minutes before kickoff that capture was taken. If there is no capture, CLV is left blank, never estimated.
- What this is not. This is our own automated database. It is public and auditable, but no third party has verified it.
| published_ts | money | verdict | selection | market | line | price | book | fair_market_price | fair_price | edge | stake_units | result | pl_units | close_price | close_line | close_min_before | clv_prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02T13:41:04Z | PAPER | LEAN | New England Patriots | spreads | 7.0 | -112 | lowvig | -106 | -123 | 0.0235 | 0.0 | ||||||
| 2026-10-02T13:41:04Z | PAPER | LEAN | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | spreads | 3.5 | -108 | draftkings | -104 | -152 | 0.0839 | 0.0 | ||||||
| 2026-10-02T13:41:04Z | PAPER | LEAN | Houston Texans | spreads | -3.0 | -106 | lowvig | -101 | -134 | 0.0579 | 0.0 | ||||||
| 2026-10-02T13:41:04Z | PAPER | LEAN | Las Vegas Raiders | spreads | 4.5 | -108 | draftkings | -107 | -118 | 0.0212 | 0.0 |